One year ago, in October 2008, Flash Player 10 was publicly released. At the time, due to some major early adoption, I predicted it’d reach a 90% browser penetration after 6 months.
It turns out I was a bit too optimistic, but in a way, the prediction now doesn’t seem to be as crazy as it was when I first wrote about it. The reason? The new statistics are out, and it still managed to beat the adoption rate of all other major versions of the player quite handily.
At 11 months after release, it has a 93.5% penetration for mature markets, having reached the oh-so-important 90% penetration rate in about 9 or 10 months. Not bad; can we start developing for Flash 10 only now? 😉
All historical data is collected on my shared spreadsheet.